For Whom the Doom Scrolls

June 1, 2024

Introduction

Artificial Intelligence is a subject that has captured the public imagination for generations. Since the earliest days of computing, it was posited that a device could be invented that may surpass human intellectual capabilities. The possibilities presented by this idea were vast, but also concerning. What if this form of intelligence decided that human beings were no longer valuable? Pundits and storytellers to this day offer doomsday scenarios that may come to pass in a distant (or near) future. However, in recent years, the age-old reality of technology has seemingly begun to re-emerge: AI will cause great changes to occur and will be used and misused in ways that transform society as we know it.

This is not to speak to the military uses of AI, which would require a separate article to discuss. This is connected more to the recent technologies, particularly those like ChatGPT, Midjourney and similar AI, which have generated great interest for their ability to provide seemingly ‘creative’ responses to simple prompts. These AI are variously capable of generating essays, digital drawings, videos, music and lyrics (of dubious quality), spoken messages (of increasingly high quality) and even official documentation (such as CVs, memos etc.). Though there are well-documented instances of error in these new technologies, particularly ChatGPT, they are nonetheless considered the way forward for many ‘creative’ tasks. These will include everything from official documents to marketing materials, and beyond.

The question on most people’s minds is ‘how will this affect my future?’. The answer to that is complicated and, in many ways, will only be revealed over time. However, there are effects that can already be seen and extrapolated to gain an understanding of what the future might hold. This becomes especially pertinent to people in developing nations, who usually bear the brunt of the ‘downstream effects’ and often do not receive a fair share of the gains when it comes to innovative technologies. So far, the conversation has focused on a few issues that will have the most immediate effects.

3 Opportunities

1 – Innovative Solutions Tailored to Local Needs

Developing nations, like Pakistan, have serious gaps in terms of services, infrastructure and qualified professionals. For instance, the education system is too small and poorly staffed to serve the student population, with 22.8 million children out of school before the COVID-19 pandemic and 2022 flooding, and several reported dropouts after these calamities. Further, it is not equipped to handle distance learning. With the increasing influx of relatively affordable tablets and smartphones, education could become accessible for several groups of people who would be otherwise unable to afford it. If AI was used to support innovative solutions in this sector, a variety of benefits could result. For instance, this education could be personally tailored and its value maximized for each student. In this way, a more skilled and informed cohort could be created at a fraction of the cost. This is just one application, but the dynamic and customizable nature of AI could have a similar impact in several fields that would particularly help the citizens of developing nations if made affordable and accessible to them.

2 – Increase of Access to Services

Though there is a concern of professionals losing out on work that needs to be addressed, there is another side to this that can be of great value in developing nations. This would be the ability to avail low cost services in difficult to reach areas such as villages and areas with challenging terrain. If the proper technology could be installed in these areas, it would only be a matter of basic periodic maintenance and the people could avail services such as medical, practical, legal, informational and several others that would not require human involvement. Further, the language barrier could easily be crossed by adding in translation or multiple languages, without requiring interpreters who may be hard to find. This way, these areas could be made livable and even thrive, so that people feel a higher incentive to remain there instead of moving to overcrowded urban centers in search of opportunities and basic services.

3 – Business Opportunities in Various Sectors

Lastly, the growing understanding in the world is that AI presents innumerable business opportunities, that will become increasingly clear over the coming years. Previously time-consuming tasks can be simplified and new avenues can be explored. One such task could be digital services, which could be offered using the growing technical and coding knowledge possessed by AI such as OpenAI Codex, AskCodi etc. Further, there could be the creation of new, niche AI that provide specific services which can be sold to companies. Given Pakistan’s growing tech sector and the increasing number of students who are pursuing computer science and other tech-oriented fields, this avenue could be especially fruitful for our developing nation.

Ultimately, the value of AI could be no less than a transformation of an unprecedented scale. Many people have already called it a cornerstone of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. By using this change to set up systems and services for developing nations, and avoiding the expected pitfalls, developing nations such as ours could easily transform their economies and allow countless citizens to gain prosperity in ways that also unleash their innate potential

3 Impacts

1 – Loss of ‘Outsourced’ Work

One of the purported benefits of globalization was that developing countries could leverage their cheap labour force to become the ‘world’s factories’ and create a larger income stream as a result. China, in particular, became a juggernaut in this regard and is poised to be the next global superpower in part due to this. Essentially, any low-wage job that was considered no longer ‘viable’ in developed countries was ‘outsourced’ to developing nations. This is also true of more cognitively demanding work, such as call centers, which were moved to other countries, with India being one of the key players. This way, the local workforce could make higher salaries and transform their lives through the work they would do in factories, call centers and other organizations which were set up for outsourcing work. It was also considered a part of the life cycle of a developing nation, on its way to becoming developed. With the advent of AI, there is a possibility of using these programs for low-wage jobs, such as call center work, clerical work and some manufacturing jobs. This could prove a blow to the countries that rely on this type of labor and would allow already developed countries to reap all the benefits, or at most a very small number of individuals in developing countries, while the vast majority will lose out on employment that could help them or their children climb out of poverty.

2 – Automation Leading to Job Loss

On the higher end of the scale, there is the concern that upper level jobs will also be automated. These jobs range from physicians to lawyers to financial professionals. These are specialized jobs, that people from developing countries will often use to improve their financial status and even immigrate to more affluent countries, which allows them to send money as remittances to their home country. For this reason, as these jobs become easier to automate (whether entirely or in part), there will be less demand for these skilled professionals locally and internationally, decreasing their earning power and opportunities for future generations. The consequence to developing nations will be a shrinking skilled workforce and less productive workforce, leading to a stagnating or even declining economy. This may even affect educational attainment, as poorer families are less able and less willing to send their children for higher education, if it is not seen as financially beneficial.

3 – Plagiarism and ‘Hallucinations’

This is especially pertinent to Pakistan, where there are continual education-related scandals, ranging from fake degrees to verbatim plagiarism. This shows that the education system will be affected greatly by the shock of ChatGPT, as students will find it easy to carry out a variety of academically dishonest behaviours, e.g. submit entire papers that they will not have written themselves. This will prove a serious setback to education and may be difficult to catch as plagiarism checkers found online are thus far unable to identify this type of assistance. Even instances where this is done innocently may end up causing issues due to something classified as AI ‘Hallucinations’. This is when AI provides information or ‘facts’ for which there is no evidence. This is due to the nature of these language learning models and how they learn, which can cause information to be fabricated to suit a narrative. These false ‘facts’ are very difficult to spot, as they appear to be legitimate and fit well within the written work provided. This could be used for dishonest purposes as well, with bad actors producing ‘reports’ and other materials filled with false information to suit an agenda that could cause harm before the falsehood has even been recognized. Though this is already the case in many places, AI will allow this to happen at a much faster rate and in a much more effective manner.