The Outlier is back! We have a new look, new ideas and whole new host of unexpected insights to keep you informed about what is happening in the world around us. Each month, a specific theme will be followed. We are starting with AI for August, Nutrition for September and Climate Change and Water for October, with more to come. Hope you enjoy and join us in this exciting new chapter.

The time for mitigation has passed on Climate Change, now we must adapt. Our article goes over some of the ways we will simply have to change to move forward in this new and complex era. The future is uncertain, which means there is still time to steer it in a positive direction for Pakistan.

It is often cited as being around the 1970’s that Global Warming (now branded Climate Change) came into the public consciousness as a credible threat to humanity’s future. An understanding of the ‘greenhouse effect’ and fossil fuels as a major concern was present since the mid-1800’s to the early 1900’s, with Svante Arrhenius, Eunice Foote and Guy Callendar’s surprising findings on the powerful mechanisms underpinning the ‘global temperature’. All this to say: we’ve known about this emerging crisis for a long time. Yet, despite fervent efforts from multiple individuals, communities and even nations, the problem was not addressed in time.

Much like in the case of AI, a “New Normal” is being warned of: a new world we will have to adjust to in order to survive and thrive in the coming eras. This is a gross understatement. What both, AI and Climate Change, will bring over time is a ‘New Abnormal’, which will be felt world over. Before countless scores of us have time to adapt, we may simply become obsolete or incapable of survival in this new world.

Nowhere is this process as obvious as the developing nations that have also been dubbed ‘climate hotspots’ (as a means of warning without alarming, one assumes). Pakistan is one such nation, with a system dysfunctional enough to make it the continuous target of international news headlines. With every climate-based shock, people are caught by surprise and often suffer heavy losses in the process. Below are only three new abnormalities for which we have to develop new systems, infrastructure and policies; arguable the most important ones.

To start with the obvious: flooding will not go away, it will not get better and we cannot escape it. It will get worse, it will affect more of us and it will likely encroach into areas (via migration, agricultural losses etc.) where it hasn’t even occurred. The most well-known of its causes is the intensifying monsoon rains, which are increasingly overwhelming drainage systems, including those built in response to previous rains. But floods in Pakistan are not caused by rainfall alone. Rising temperatures are accelerating glacier melt in the north, feeding rivers already swollen by the monsoon. Weak or poorly maintained embankments and encroachments on floodplains further magnify the damage. Urban expansion without proper drainage planning turns cities into basins during heavy downpours. In the mountains of Gilgit-Baltistan and Chitral, Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) have become an emerging threat, triggered by heatwaves and unstable ice dams. Rampant deforestation across river catchments, particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and along the Indus, has stripped the land of its natural capacity to absorb rainwater. Together, these forces make flooding a year-round, nationwide risk rather than a seasonal event.

Agriculture is part of Pakistan’s identity and has been since the country’s inception. In the future, this may not be as clear a distinction. As many people know but rarely have time to think about, agriculture hinges on the nature of rainfall, i.e. the relatively predictable cycles of nature. When those cycles are disrupted by extreme flooding or, at the opposite end, prolonged drought, the impacts ripple across the entire food system. Crops are washed away or submerged during floods, while droughts parch fields and reduce water availability for irrigation, leaving planting schedules thrown into chaos. Smallholder farmers often lack the resources to recover quickly from either extreme, leaving families vulnerable to hunger and debt. Irrigation networks and canals, already stressed by rising river flows, sediment build-up, or depleted reservoirs, struggle to deliver water where it is needed. Even regions historically considered “safe” from floods or droughts will experience increasing variability, forcing communities to adapt or abandon long-held farming practices. As agricultural livelihoods falter, many families are compelled to migrate toward cities in search of work, adding pressure to urban infrastructure and services already strained by various human and natural factors. Over time, these disruptions threaten not just livelihoods but the nation’s broader food security, economic stability, and social cohesion.

Though flooding is a major threat, mitigation and avoidance may prove useful long-term strategies. Heat, on the other hand, has its mitigatory limits. After a certain point, you are essentially dealing with a deadly, uninhabitable desert. For Pakistan, there is a danger that some areas will transform into just this, with countless deaths happening in the interim. Large parts of Sindh and southern Punjab, already experiencing extreme summer temperatures above 45°C, may become largely unliveable without massive adaptation efforts. Tharparkar, historically vulnerable to both heat and drought, will face intensified stress on water, crops, and human health. Even cities, long thought to be the beating heart of commerce and culture, will take similar hits: Karachi, Lahore, and Multan are projected to see even more heatwaves, some so severe that outdoor activity becomes life-threatening and energy and water systems are overwhelmed. These conditions underscore that while we can plan for floods, extreme heat may force permanent migration and fundamentally reshape where and how people live. This will in turn change the economic map of Pakistan and cause strains that the country is not at all ready to deal with in its current state.

Let’s face it, the coming reality is one of struggle, loss and great devastation– and that’s only for the privileged among us! The poor and underserved are likely to be wiped out of history’s ledger in unfathomable numbers. So, why bother doing anything, right? Wrong. Our people have been through colonization, Partition and countless political struggles. Of course, the sheer force of nature is far greater than even these. But consider why you are standing here today. It’s because your ancestors kept trying and striving for the hope that you would live a better life than they did. Today, there are children counting on us to do the same. Recycling, turning off the tap and eating local are no longer sufficient responses. We must demand change at all levels, particularly where infrastructure and policy are concerned. Protected areas, organic farming practices and common-sense stewardship of our water resources is not only useful, it is a need. So, consider the sorry figure of Pakistan on the global stage (noncommittal, lazy, irresponsible) a thing of the past. The modern, adaptive Pakistan must emerge from this crisis: informed, empowered and ready to strive for a future where Pakistan’s children (and grandchildren) can thrive.